American Trucking Associations projects truck volumes will increase 1.6% after two years of declines—and ultimately rise to nearly 14 billion tons by 2035—in the latest edition of its annual freight forecast.
The report is a joint effort between ATA and S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“In this edition of Forecast, the trucking industry continues to dominate the freight transportation industry in terms of both tonnage and revenue, comprising 72.7% of tonnage and 76.9% of revenue in 2024,” Bob Costello, ATA chief economist, said in a news release. “We project that market share to hold over the next decade as the country continues to rely on trucking to move the vast majority of freight.”
Other key findings in ATA’s Freight Transportation Forecast 2024 to 2035 include:
- Total truck tonnage will rise from an estimated 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion tons in 2035. Over that same period, trucking industry revenues will grow from an estimated $906 billion to $1.46 trillion, accounting for 76.8% of the freight market by the end of the forecast period.
- Looking at other modes of transportation:
- The overall share of freight tonnage moved by railroads will fall from 10.6% in 2024 to 9.9% in 2035, mostly due to declines in coal volume.
- Intermodal rail tonnage will grow by 2.9% through 2030, and then 2.8% between 2031 and 2035.
- Air cargo, domestic waterborne transportation and pipelines will all see increases in tonnage between 2024 and 2035.
“Knowledge is power, and the information in Freight Forecast is an enabler for the leaders who shape our industry,” said Chris Spear, ATA president and CEO. “Understanding the trends in our supply chain should be key for policymakers in Washington, in statehouses around the country and wherever decisions are being made that affect trucking and our economy.”