ACT Research
6659dbd3a00f4650d17b9698 Act Forhire Trucking Index Volumes April 2024

ACT: Private fleet productivity stalls for-hire recovery

May 31, 2024
“While private fleet competition has weighed on volumes the past few months, it’s not likely to last long,” ACT research analyst predicts.

ACT Research’s latest For-Hire Trucking Index continues to reflect a slowly recovering for-hire trucking market, with volumes decreasing 4.1 points month-over-month to 41.7 in April, the firm reported.

“Evidence and anecdotes suggest private fleets have taken some volume from the for-hire market,” Carter Vieth, ACT research analyst, said in a news release. “Given private fleets’ cost disadvantage, and lack of incentive for backhauls, we don’t expect this to last long, and recent Class 8 data suggests private-fleet capacity additions are slowing—a welcome sign after an extended downturn.”

Additionally, ACT’s Capacity Index decreased by 3 points m/m to 44.2 in April. The decrease continues to reflect challenging for-hire conditions, with low rates and higher costs driving fleet contraction, as evidenced by the worst quarter for profitability amongst the publicly traded TL carriers in 14 years.

“Class 8 sales trends suggest the ongoing capacity additions at private fleets—a key reason the downcycle has drawn out so long—are slowing, too, reducing overall capacity additions and downward rate pressure,” Vieth commented.

Finally, ACT’s Supply-Demand Balance fell 1 point m/m to 47.5 in April as volumes decreased more than capacity.

“While private fleet competition has weighed on volumes the past few months, it’s not likely to last long,” Vieth concluded. “Solid performance of rates and the load/truck ratio in the spot market through Roadcheck suggest the gradually improving volume trends will support the market balance in 2024.

“Overall, the Supply-Demand Balance suggests a market close to the elusive and impermanent equilibrium.”