Class 8 orders improved month-over-month in November, according to the latest data from FTR Intel and ACT Research.
FTR reported preliminary orders of 33,500 units, reflecting a 12% increase m/m but a 7% decrease year-over-year. While down y/y, orders were still above seasonal expectations as the average November order level over the past seven years is 30,393 units. Despite ongoing stagnation in the truck freight market, net orders in September through November 2024 were 1% higher than the same period in 2023, signaling slight positive momentum for the 2025 order season.
Year-to-date (YTD) order performance has slightly surpassed replacement demand levels, averaging 22,473 net orders per month. As of November 2024, YTD net orders were up 9% y/y. North American Class 8 orders have now totaled 273,143 units for the last 12 months.
OEMs experienced relatively consistent m/m growth in total market demand in November, FTR added. The on-highway market saw a significant increase in demand that offset and overshadowed the decline in the overall vocational sector.
“Despite a sluggish freight market, fleets have continued to invest in new equipment, mainly at replacement demand levels so far in 2024,” Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, said in a news release. “We expect a modest rise in November backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month.
“Meanwhile, the election potentially could begin affecting the commercial vehicle market in the near term. The solid m/m increase in net orders might reflect some fleets choosing to place orders following the conclusion of the November U.S. elections, but the election impact might not end there. On Nov. 25, President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs as one of his first executive orders, proposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. More than 40% of Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. market currently are built in Mexico.
“The announcement presents challenges for the commercial vehicle industry already grappling with preparations for 2027 U.S. EPA NOx regulations, further straining supply chains and costs. While the late-November announcement likely had minimal impact on orders for the month, orders over the next month or so could see a boost as fleets aim to preempt potential tariffs. If tariffs take effect in Q1 2025, OEMs may struggle to quickly ramp up production beforehand due to labor and supply chain constraints, especially during the slow production months of December to February. High Class 8 inventory levels could partially meet any surge in retail demand.”
OEMs still not clearing backlogs
ACT’s preliminary count revealed orders for 37,200 Class 8 units in a 21% m/m surge
“We are still in the early stages of the industry’s building of 2025 backlogs, but through November, seasonally strong orders have made little progress in closing the backlog gap compared to year-ago levels,” Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst, said in a news release. “While up from October, orders were 11% below last November’s performance. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders jumped 42% from October to 34,800 units, 418,000 SAAR.”
Regarding medium duty, Vieth added: “MD Classes 5-7 orders continue their consistent, if slowly deflating, trajectory into historically elevated truck and bus backlogs. Preliminary November NA Classes 5-7 orders fell 30% y/y to 16,500 units, the third-weakest net order tally of 2024.”
