Net trailer orders declined from January to February, according to the latest data from ACT Research and FTR Intel.
ACT reported a 17% month-over-month contraction to 18,000 units in February, as well as a 14% year-over-year dip. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers its February tally to 17,000 units, which is about 12% below January’s seasonally adjusted intake, ACT added.
“A sequential drop in net orders was expected, as we move toward the weaker order months of the annual intake cycle, and from that perspective, February did not disappoint,” Jennifer McNealy, ACT director of CV market research and publications, said in a news release. “It’s also no surprise that data are lower than the February 2024 intake, given the uncertainty currently plaguing the U.S. commercial vehicle industry and the economy at large.
“Despite the ambiguity that continues to buttress the trailer market pause we’ve seen for the last year—made worse by the constant policy shifting of the last few months—orders are expected to be placed but at a subdued level throughout 2025. That said, this is not a shift in ACT’s expectations, as weak trailer demand is the result of weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impeding stronger activity in the near term.”
‘Uncertainty’ presents challenges
Total U.S. trailer net orders in February declined 18% month-over-month but increased 3% year-over-year, reaching 20,874 units by FTR’s count. February represented the fourth consecutive month with net orders exceeding 20,000 units and positive year-over-year growth, the firm added.
However, a sluggish start to the 2025 order season (September 2024 through February 2025) means cumulative net orders are still down 14% year-over-year at 124,737 units. Although many fleets prioritized purchasing power units over trailers in 2024, U.S. trailer net orders of 46,298 for 2025 to date have outpaced U.S. Class 8 net orders by 9,554 units.
Total trailers built in February increased 23% month-over-month to 15,800 units but remained down 34% year-over-year. The stronger-than-seasonal month-over-month increase was likely driven by improved order levels in recent months and efforts by some OEMs to produce additional units ahead of potential tariffs expected in March or April. Trailer build for 2025 to date is down 34% year-over-year. With total trailer net orders outpacing production, backlogs increased by 4,298 units. The sharper increase in production than in backlogs reduced the backlog/build ratio slightly to a still-healthy 7.8 months.
“New and pending U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures, pose significant risks to the North American trailer market,” said Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles. “Tariffs will affect not only imported trailers but also domestic trailers, depending on the extent of imported materials, and the market effects could be broad-based. OEMs face higher production costs, tighter margins, and potentially slowing or stagnant demand. Suppliers may encounter supply chain disruptions and increased financial strain. Fleets could see higher trailer prices and longer lead times, prompting delayed purchases or shifts toward investing in power units once again. Overall, tariff-related uncertainty presents strategic challenges industrywide.
“Another issue we will be watching is whether the Environmental Protection Agency’s recently announced plan to revisit its 2027 truck NOx emissions change disrupts fleet equipment strategies that otherwise presumably would have led to fleets prioritizing power unit orders over trailers by late this year, if not earlier.”