Net U.S. trailer orders soared year-over-year in January, according to the latest data from commercial vehicle analysts ACT Research and FTR Intel.
FTR reported fleets booked orders for 23,966 units in January, an 81% year-over-year surge and the third consecutive month of positive year-over-year growth. That tally still was down 2% from December, and total trailer net orders for the 2025 order season, which runs September 2024 to January 2025, are 21% below the same period from a year ago, at 98,926 units, or an average of 19,785 units per month.
Total trailer production increased by 2% month-over-month in January, to 12,042 units, FTR continued. However, production was down 35% year-over-year—46% below the seven-year January average—and was still the second-lowest monthly output since 2010. With total trailer net orders significantly outpacing production, backlogs increased by 12,210 units, pushing the backlog/build ratio up to 9.7 months, which is the highest since February 2023. While this higher ratio is largely attributed to exceptionally low production levels, it also suggests easing pressure on OEMs to further scale back production in the near term.
“Many fleets continue to prioritize purchasing power units over trailers—a trend unlikely to reverse given the approaching implementation of EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations on trucks,” Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, said in a news release. “During the 2025 order season so far, North American Class 8 net orders are up 4% year-over-year while U.S. trailer net orders are down 21%. Trailer OEMs have scaled back production, and prolonged cuts are possible if demand remains weak.
“Tariffs threaten further disruption. The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports planned to take effect next month along with the 10% additional tariff already imposed on Chinese imports and the currently paused but still possible 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will raise material costs, squeeze margins, and strain supply chains. Tariffs will affect not only fully assembled trailers imported into the U.S. but also domestically produced trailers, which depend on imported materials and components. Expect market volatility as OEMs try to adapt to uncertainty over scope and timing of tariff impacts.”
Weaker trailer demand to continue
ACT reported 21,300 net orders in January in a 51% year-over-year increase. But that figure was down 3,100 units from December 2024, and a season adjustment at this point in the annual order cycle lowers January’s tally to 19,300 units. That’s about 10% above December’s seasonally adjusted intake, ACT added.
“Though past the traditional peak, we’re still in a period of ‘strong order’ intake,” said Jennifer McNealy, ACT director of CV market research and publications. “This month’s pattern of lower than December but still above average demand was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data are higher than the January 2024 intake, given the slowing demand that marked 2023 and led into the subdued market reported throughout most of 2024.
“Notwithstanding the improvement thus far in the 2025 order cycle, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impede stronger activity in the near term. An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first few months of the new order cycle, but on order volumes through Q1 2025 and beyond.”