Transport Capital Partners’ (TCP) second quarter 2013 Business Expectations Survey reveals positive trends for rates and volumes. Results from this survey break a three-year trend of lowering expectations for volume growth in the second quarter. More carriers now report expecting volumes for the second quarter to hold steady.
Opinions diverge between larger carriers (over $25 million in revenues) and smaller carriers. In both groups, half expect volumes will increase. However, almost 40% of smaller carriers think volumes will decrease; only 3% of their larger competitors expect a decrease. While 40% of larger carriers expect volumes to remain the same, just 11% of smaller carriers see volumes holding steady.
Richard Mikes, a TCP partner, says: “As the economy waits to sort out the cross currents of macro events and the change in Federal Reserve policies, freight volumes struggle to grow significantly.”
A large majority of carriers (80%) have seen rates hold steady over the past quarter. Optimistically, most carriers (73%) are also expecting rates to increase in the next 12 months. These positive expections are shared by both large and small carriers.
Eighteen percent of carriers have seen rates increase, up from 11% last quarter. However, this is down from the 45% of carriers that reported rate increases a year ago. More smaller carriers than larger carriers have seen rates increase--25% versus 14%.
“Even with modest improvement in freight demand, carriers are anticipating much needed higher rates from customers,” says Steven Dutro, TCP partner.