Low-sulfur diesel and gasoline are likely to spearhead an economic recovery for the refining industry just beyond 2010, a study from Hart Energy Consulting shows.
Strong global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (2.7%) in 2010 should buttress refined petroleum product demand, especially in the Asia Pacific region and other emerging markets. Over the next decade, global demand will grow by 1.7% annually, and Asia Pacific will account for nearly half that increase. Worldwide environmental initiatives will spur even higher growth in lower sulfur products. Demand for low-sulfur gasoline and diesel will increase by nearly 17 million barrels per day by 2020 (more than a 70% increase). The oversupply situation in gasoline will be offset by a tight demand/supply balance for clean diesel.
“Refiners with more flexibility and complexity will be better placed to improve margins as markets emerge from the economic downturn. Refineries that can quickly increase yields of these low-sulfur fuels are the ones that are set to be the most profitable in the short run,” said Terry Higgins, executive director, global refining for Hart Energy Consulting.
The full study covers petroleum product demand and supply, country-specific and global crude and NGL production, as well as a thorough analysis of the impact of environmental regulation and public policy requirements. This year Hart Energy Consulting added a special review of the impact of current issues such as:
- Developing climate policies on vehicle fleet and fuel quality and demand.
- Economic subsidies on supply and demand of renewable and low-carbon fuel.
- A short-term economic recovery: crude oil prices forecast, GDP forecast, vehicle ownership projections, and petroleum demand.