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Mar 13, 2012 1:34 PM

The  Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) rose 0.7% in February but was not  enough to offset the 1.7% decline in the previous month. The monthly report--issued  by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation—continues to  show a US economy that is struggling to gain traction.

The  most recent three-month period from December to February is lower than the  previous three months from September to November 2011 by 3.2% at an annualized  rate. With the first two months of the quarter known, the PCI must grow by over  4% from February to March to allow the PCI to grow positively in the first  quarter of 2012 compared with the last quarter of 2011.

"The continuing weakness of the PCI is signaling that, perhaps, the  recovery in home building has not yet taken hold. The recent improvement in  building permits and housing starts may get building going again and therefore,  trucking as well, as it has been said that it takes 17 truckloads to build a  home” says Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce  Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “If we get the saws and  hammers going again, we will have a real recovery with much healthier job  growth." 

The  year-over-year growth in the PCI since May of 2011 has been wobbling slightly  above zero. In December 2011, the year-over-year growth turned decidedly  negative at -0.8% with January 2012 even worse at -2.2%; February year-over-year  was only slightly negative at -0.2%. 

  The  complete February report, regional analysis and additional commentary are  available at www.ceridianindex.com, by contacting index@ceridian.com or by following the Twitter handle @CeridianIndex.