Latest Bentek Energy Forecast predicts US crude oil production to rise 74% by 2022
Sep 13, 2012 1:14 PM
Crude oil production in the United States is projected to grow by 74%, or more than 4.9 million barrels per day (MMb/d), during the next 10 years to an average of 11.6 MMb/d by 2022, according to Bentek Energy, the energy data analytics unit of Platts, a leading global energy, petrochemicals and metals information provider.
"Not only will the projected record growth in oil production affect North America, it will have dramatic implications for global crude oil markets," says Jodi Quinnell, Bentek oil analysis manager. "We foresee a massive displacement of traditional waterborne oil imports to the United States by 2022, taking them from 45% of US total crude supply to no more than five percent."
In the North American Perspective section of its Crude Awakening: Shale Boom Hits Oil (http://www.bentekenergy.com/CrudeAwakening.aspx#2012) special report, a series of regional and global long-term forecasts and analysis, Bentek says US waterborne imports will likely plummet to less than one MMb/d by 2022, compared to 6.7 MMb/d in 2011.
The section features Bentek's latest 10-year crude oil supply and demand forecasts for the United States and Canada, including projections for regional production, overseas imports, regional flows and refining demand. There is also an examination of crude oil transportation constraints.
"As could be expected with such a forecast, we also see North American crude oil prices declining versus their global counterparts," says Quinnell.
Bentek analysts say the projected rise in US petroleum production--largely driven by shale oil activity of the Eagle Ford and Bakken plays in the mid-western United States and parts of Canada--will be accompanied by lower US and Canadian oil prices relative to international oil benchmarks.
For example, as sweeter, lighter sulfur crude oils compete for market share in the US Gulf Coast, Louisiana Light Sweet crude oil is seen disconnecting from those of Brent crude, found near the North Sea, off Europe and Britain. West Texas Intermediate crude is pegged for a price decline of up to $16 per barrel by the end of 2017.
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