LED BY an expected 8.5% growth in China, worldwide portland cement consumption increased 5.6% in 2006, and will be followed by a 5.5% rise in 2007, according to the Portland Cement Association's first-ever international cement consumption forecast. The growth level equates to an average of nearly 130 million metric tonnes annually.
The report cites growth conditions in the developing world, particularly China, as playing a critical role in consumption trends. About 20% of cement consumption growth will occur outside of China and the industrialized world, mostly in other Asian nations, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and South America.
“While the major developed economies like the United States and Western Europe have generally performed well,” says PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan, “world economic growth has been characterized by buoyant growth outside these industrial countries.
”During 2002-2005, world cement consumption increased 457 million metric tonnes, representing a 25% gain. Put into perspective, North American and Western European markets grew by only 35 million metric tonnes in those four years, accounting for 7.5% of world growth. In contrast, the Chinese market expanded by 327 million metric tonnes between 2002 and 2005. The 2005 Chinese market was estimated at 1.2 billion metric tonnes, or 45% of world consumption, and this is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.5% (or 90 million metric tonnes) during the 2006-2007 period.
According to US Geological Survey estimates, production has kept pace with growth in world consumption during 2002-2005 through major capacity expansions across the globe. Three quarters of world production increases during this period occurred in China, with more expansion coming on line during the next several years. At the same time, China also plans for the retirement of 250 million metric tonnes capacity tied to old and inefficient vertical kilns.